Author(s):

Pankaj Prashad Joshi, Santosh Marahatta, Shrawan Kumar Sah and Lal Prasad Amgain

Abstract: A field experiment and simulation modeling study in combination for different rice cultivars in different establishment methods applied with different levels of nitrogen was done in sub-tropical climate in Rampur, Chitwan during rainy season of 2015 to assess the impact of climate change scenarios by using CSM-CERES-rice model. Three factors Strip-split plot experimental design using establishment methods (conservation and conventional agriculture) in vertical plots; varieties (hybrid Gorakhnath 509 and high yielding Sabitri) in horizontal plots and four nitrogen levels (0, 60, 120 and 180 kg N ha-1) in sub-sub plots was laid out with three replications. Data regarding phenology, biometrical observations and yield attributes were recorded during the experiment. In comparison between establishment methods, yield of rice was higher in conservation agriculture (4766 kg ha-1) as compared to conventional agriculture (4106 kg ha-1). The sensitivity for various climate change parameter indicated that there was severely decreased trend in simulated yield of varieties in different establishment method with increase in maximum and minimum temperature, carbon dioxide concentration and solar radiation. Even 20C rise in temperature can decrease around 71.36 % yield of rice cultivars and this effect was even more pronounced in hybrid than improved cultivars. Reduction of temperature by 20C resulted in increased yield by 51.51 and 17.37% for Gorakhnath 509 and Sabitri under CA respectively but Sabitri and Gorakhnath 509 in conventional agriculture were not influenced due to reduction of temperature. Increase in CO2 concentration by 20ppm increased yield did not influenced the yield of varieties whereas change in solar radiation showed positive response to yield but the variation due to solar radiation was small. Solar radiation mainly influenced the Gorakhnath 509 in conventional agriculture which showed up to 18% variation in yield. Therefore crop production under conservation agriculture was more productive and profitable and beneficial for sustainable rice production. Further evaluating the climatic parameters showed that yield will increase as the temperature and CO2 concentration will decrease in conservation agriculture and conventional agriculture will be less affected by increase or decrease in temperature.

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