Author(s):

Deepankar, DR Aneja and Ajay Kumar

Abstract: The analysis was conducted for Haryana district of Karnal for a period of 35 years (1980-81 to 2015-16), based on historical data. Rice yield data were taken from Haryana's Statistical Abstract and corresponding daily weather data from the Central Soil Salinity Research Institute (CSSRI), Karnal were collected. With yield as dependent variable and weather indices (artificial variables created from weekly & fortnightly weather values) both individually and in combinations, were used as predictor variables in stepwise multiple regression technique. The data for the period 1981-82 to 2012-13 were used for model development, and the remaining three years of data, i.e. from 2013-14 to 2015-16, were used for validation. Depending on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the adjusted R2, the model is chosen among all models based on the number of rainy days (24 weeks) relying on individual weather variables. The model based on the cumulative effects of maximum temperature and relative humidity morning (22 weeks) predicted rice yields that were very similar to real yields as a per-cent relative deviation from 1.15% to 7.6%.

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