Author(s):

V Guhan, V Geethalakshmi, S Arul Prasad, K Bhuvaneswari, K Senthilraja, P Kumaresan, M Vengateswari and S Panneerselvam

Abstract: A Field experiment was carried out at Ponnaniyar dam, Mugavanur village, Vaiyampatti block of Thiruchirapalli district, Tamil Nadu during the season of November 2016 - April 2017 to assess the impact of climate change on tomato yield over Thiruchirapalli using AquaCrop model. Seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures over Thiruchirapalli are projected to increase in the mid-century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.7°C/2.5 °C in SWM and 1.9 °C/2.9°C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Minimum temperature is expected to increase up to 1.6°C/2.2 °C in SWM and 1.6 °C/2.1°C in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization (RCP 4.5) and overshoot emission (RCP 8.5) pathways. Seasonal rainfall over Thiruchirapalli is expected to decrease with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios with different magnitude. Rainfall is expected to change to the tune of -1 to -11 per cent in SWM and -2 to -14 per cent in NEM by the mid of century as projected through stabilization of RCP 4.5 and overshoot emission of RCP 8.5 pathways. Tomato yield is expected to decline with the mean decrease of 13 per cent by mid of the century from the current yield levels due to climate change.

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