Author(s):

Mamata, Alisha Mittal and Deepa Bharti

Abstract: Forecasting is an important tool to estimate the area, production and productivity of any crop in near future. The method chosen depends on the purpose and importance of the forecasts as well as the cost and efficiency of the alternative forecasting methods. Keeping in view the importance of the subject matter, a study on yield trends of barley crop in India has been undertaken to see the forecasting performance of the developed ARIMA models for barley yield prediction. ARIMA models are built for the data related to barley yields in India. The crop yield data of the past three/four decades have been used for the model building and the forecast values are obtained for the year 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18. After experimenting with different lags of the moving average and autoregressive processes; ARIMA (1,1,0) have been fitted for barley yield forecasting purpose in India. The overall results indicates that the percent relative deviations of the forecast yields from the observed yields are within acceptable limits and favours the use of ARIMA models to get short-term forecast estimates.

Pages: 1193-1196  |  852 Views  369 Downloads

Download (618KB)