Author(s):

Dr. BL Sinha and Shri MK Pradhan

Abstract: Probability analysis of rainfall offers a better scope for predicting the minimum assured rainfall to help in crop planning in rainfed regions. An attempt has been made to evaluate rainfall distribution patterns i.e. weekly, seasonal and annual rainfall, based on 40 years (1971-2010) data of raipur, Chhattisgarh at BRSM College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Indira Gandhi Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya, Mungeli, Chhattisgarh. Expected weekly, monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall values at different probability levels were determined by using Normal Distribution Function. The analysis showed that at 75% probability level the highest rainfall 25.83 mm received by 33rd week and lowest rainfall received by 39th week i.e. 7.41 mm. The climatic season are varied in nature and found that at 75% probability the monsoon season received highest rainfall i.e. 294.74 mm, and lowest rainfall received by season winter i.e. 9.71 mm. At 70% probability Rabi season received the lowest rainfall 13.61mm which contributed the 1.15% of the average annual rainfall; the highest rainfall received at this probability level by Kharif season 315.79 mm and contributed the 26.81% of average annual rainfall. The values of annual rainfall were estimated 125.11, 262.99, 338.89, 420.99, 601.99, 816.99, 1081.69, 1632.79, 1900.99 and 2711.99 mm at 90, 80 75, 70, 60, 40, 25, 20 and 10% probability level, respectively. At 70% probability enough rainfall is available for growing high value fruit crops although supplemental irrigation is required for Kharif crops.

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