Author(s):

Ramalpreet Singh and Raj Kumar Pal

Abstract: The value added medium range rainfall forecast, received from Meteorological Centre, Chandigarh, was verified as per quantitative analysis three categories i.e. 0mm (no rainfall), 1-10mm, and more than 10mm rainfall for Bathinda (BTI) and Faridkot (FDK), districts of South-Western region of Punjab. Moreover, the seasonal skill of the rainfall forecast was also performed using Ratio score and Hansen Kuipers score analysis for both the study locations during 2013-14 to 2017-18. The results revealed that, among seasons, an average forecast for the dry weather (no rainfall), 1-10mm and >10mm was found to be successful in the ranged between 91-98, 11-50 and 100 per cent, respectively, while, 23 per cent successful for whole year for Bathinda. Similarly, for Faridkot, the forecast accuracy for no rainfall, 1-10mm and >10mm from 2013-14 to 2017-18 were found between 91-98, 17-60 and 100 per cent, respectively. Among the seasons, the highest HK score was recorded with post-monsoon (0.66) and winter season (0.68) for Bathinda and Faridkot, respectively, that indicated good skill of the rainfall forecast during the period, while, poor skill of the forecast was found with monsoon season for both the locations. Ratio score was also found to be higher for post-monsoon season (BTI 97.56 and FDK 97.24) indicating better skill of forecast, while, lowest with monsoon season.

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