Author(s):

G Subramanyam, KM Sunil and B Ajithkumar

Abstract: Agriculture is always vulnerable to unfavorable weather events and climate conditions. Despite technological advances such as improved crop varieties and irrigation systems, weather and climate are still key factors in agriculture productivity. Field experiments were conducted during 2014-15 to study the climate change impact on rice production by validating DSSATV4.5 model and crop weather relationships in rice. The field experiments were conducted at the Regional Agricultural Research Station of the Kerala Agricultural University at Pattambi, Kerala. Two popular varieties of Kerala Aathira and Vaisakh were selected for this study. Model was validated against the field data. It has showed good agreement between observed and predicted values. The RMSE for Aathira prediction is 515.6 kg and R² value is 0.64. RMSE for Vaisakh prediction is 377.75 kg and R² value is 0.82. The yield projections were made upto the years 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. The yield of Aathira will be reduced by 28 per cent, 14 per cent and 12 per cent for the periods 2030s, 2050s and 2080s respectively in RCP 2.6. Vaisakh yield will be reduced by 12 per cent by 2030’s, 21 per cent by 2050s and 10 per cent by 2080s in RCP2.6. Aathira yields will be reduced by 35 per cent, 37 per cent and 42 per cent in the periods 2030s, 2050s and 2080s respectively in RCP8.5. Vaisakh yields will be reduced by 28 per cent, 35 per cent and 38 per cent in the periods 2030s, 2050s and 2080s respectivelyin RCP 8.5.

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